On October 7, Iran possessed the most formidable regional deterrence architecture it had ever built. From Tehran through Yemen via the Houthis, alongside its strategic partnership with Qatar, and across the Shiite crescent spanning Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, Iran constructed a multi front ring of fire designed to encircle Israel and challenge the United States. Two and a half years later, following an intense and sustained campaign against its proxy network, led by Israel with United States support, that strategic architecture is now collapsing. Hezbollah, Iran’s primary strategic asset, has been severely degraded. It has lost its senior leadership, from Hassan Nasrallah to Fuad Shukr and much of its operational command, Thousands of fighters have been killed, and its missile arsenal has been dramatically reduced. From approximately one hundred and fifty thousand before the war to roughly fifteen thousand today, mostly short range and focused on northern Israel.
Hamas, which on the eve of the war functioned as a force comparable to a commando division, with tens of thousands of fighters, a strategic rocket arsenal, and one of the most sophisticated tunnel systems ever built, has lost both its military and political leadership. It has suffered heavy manpower losses, lost control over large parts of Gaza, and demonstrated an inability to mount effective operations even when Iran itself came under attack.
The Syrian front has also collapsed. The fall of the Assad regime, in part a direct consequence of Hezbollah’s weakening, shattered Iran’s central land corridor and disrupted its logistical lifeline to Lebanon. And now Iran itself. Within a single month of fighting, Iran sustained unprecedented blows. Its Supreme Leader was eliminated, a seismic event for a theocratic regime.
The senior command of the IRGC was largely eliminated, from its commander to key successors, intelligence chiefs, and senior naval leadership. ק Its air force and navy lost operational capability. Its air defense network collapsed, allowing hundreds of aircraft to operate over Iranian territory for extended periods with minimal resistance. At the same time, Iran’s military industrial base was heavily damaged. Drone factories, ballistic missile production lines, steel plants, and petrochemical infrastructure were struck. Its nuclear program also suffered significant setbacks.
Key facilities were damaged, senior scientists eliminated, and the organizational structure severely disrupted. Iran still possesses enriched uranium, but its ability to operationalize a military nuclear capability has been substantially degraded. The conclusion is clear. Iran has lost its effective deterrence and much of its status as a regional power. Even if it retains limited leverage points such as the Strait of Hormuz, it is highly questionable whether the regime can withstand the severe military, leadership, and economic crisis it has brought upon itself. Anyone portraying this ceasefire as an Iranian victory, a strange coalition of regime remnants and segments of the political left in the United States and Israel, is living in a parallel universe.
Amichai Chikli , né à Jérusalem le , est un homme politique israélien. Membre du Likoud, il est ministre des Affaires de la Diaspora du gouvernement Netanyahou depuis 2022.
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